Lose Some, Win Some

Played a li'l poker on Sunday. Just got over a small cold, and wanted to get back into the swing of things, so I decided to hit the $125 + 100RB at the Oaks. That's a $125 buy-in with an optional $100 rebuy within the first three rounds of play. I played mediocre poker and came in 63rd out of 120. Then I played the 6-12 cash game and won $300. But there's one tournament hand I want to discuss here.

My first playable hand was a beauty. After 20 minutes of mucking ugly cards, I look down at AK unsuited. Now I - like many hold 'em players - have a love-hate relationship with this hand. Typically, it can win you a tiny pot or lose you a big one. This is how it went down:

With my AK, I raise in late position. The blinds are at 25-50 and there is one caller so far. I bump it to $250, a very aggressive raise, considering there's only $125 in the pot. Anyway, the small blind folds, the big blind calls, and the limper calls as well. My plan at this point is to bet the farm if an Ace or King falls on the flop and hope I get one caller with a weaker kicker.

Of course, the flop comes K-10-5 rainbow. No flush possibilities, no serious straight threats yet, and I'm sittin' pretty, holding Kings with an Ace kicker. This is gonna be good.

But then the Big Blind bets $300 and the limper calls! Lordy. Seems I could be in trouble, but the $300 bet into a $775 pot in early position seems fishy to me. If he's got pocket Aces with this flop, you'd think he'd let me lead the betting. As for the limper, I'm not worried about him yet. I just don't want to give him a free card. Anyway, I raise to $700, sending a clear message to anyone listening that I am not letting this pot go without a fight.

Then the unthinkable happens - Big Blind goes all-in.

At this point, I go into the tank. Deep. OK, I must be beat, right? You know I'm beat. The dealer knows I'm beat. The girl bringing my Red Bull and water knows I'm beat. And I'm sitting there wondering how I can fold this hand. Before the flop, I put Big Blind on one of five hands - AA, KK, AK, KQ suited and AQ suited. At this point I can rule out AQ. I'm also ruling out KK (he definitely wouldn't lead out holding top set). I figure KQ isn't a strong possibility at this point, as it wouldn't hold up to a raise. So that leaves us with AA and AK.

Here's where math comes in: First, there's AA - everything about this hand would suggest, maybe even scream, Aces. Trouble is, I'm holding an Ace, leaving him with only 3 possible combinations of AA. Situationally probable, but mathematically improbable. Then there's AK. Even though I'm holding an Ace and a King, that still leaves 9 possible combinations of AK left in the deck. I'm hoping this is what our guy is holding. As far as I'm concerned, he's 3 times more likely to hold AK than AA.

The math, on top of the fact that I can always rebuy, leads me to call. Believe me, I went into the tank for a while before calling. He flips over AA of course, and I lose the hand. Oh well, there's only one thing left to say after something like that: "Rebuy!"